UAA’s Theory of Change

The agricultural sector in Uganda is characterised by under investment by value chain actors and supporters, who find it to be uncompetitive, disorganised, complex, high risk and dependent on so many factors which require multi-stakeholder efforts to solve. The agribusiness industry is also plagued by information asymmetries that often prevent enterprises from recognising high-value business opportunities. A majority of Ugandans operating in the sector are trapped in patterns of smallholder subsistence production; compounded by infrastructural deficits, for example in transport, energy, irrigation and storage; dependent on poor quality inputs, with weak patterns of formal land-holdings, incoherent/market distorting policies, systemic public underinvestment and a general lack of real political will to enforce regulations. As such, businesses operating in the agricultural sector in Uganda are perceived as (and in many cases are) woefully inefficient with low productivity and present high-risk propositions for many private sector investors compared to other industries like the service industry. This affects the nature and scale of investments flowing into the agricultural sector, limiting the country’s ability to create the much-needed jobs, as well as wealth for the majority of its people. This calls for coordinated interventions by multiple stakeholders, working collaboratively to manage and allocate skill, as well as financial and other non-financial investments, to scale emergent success and drive long-term sustainable agribusiness growth.

The outcome of the interventions is that private sector investments are made, setting in motion a well-organised, coordinated and financed agribusiness sector that is competitive, inclusive and sustainable. Such interventions should also enable participating private sector actors, to establish benchmark risk-adjusted returns that would make agriculture as attractive (competitive) as other sectors thereby drawing in more investments from business minded private sector (whether as small holders, agricultural SMEs or large agribusinesses). Examples of these investments would include purchase of inputs by smallholders, post-harvest infrastructure built by traders, or large scale and long-term investments in processing plants, irrigation schemes, out-grower schemes or new distribution models. The investments are then translated into final impacts of more jobs, improved food security, increased incomes and quality of life for over 80% of Ugandans who derive their livelihood from the agricultural sector.

More jobs should put money into people’s pockets, food on the table, ensure savings for the future and investment in income generating activities. This shall guarantee markets for businesses, as many more can afford to spend, because they have money and in turn this creates even more jobs and incomes at the household level. Furthermore, jobs and wealth also increase the purchasing power of the people, which enables them to afford basic human needs such as food, shelter, clothing, health care, and education hence improved quality of life.